Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-30 9.702730 11.136892 12.680601 14.462199 16.457933 18.620835 21.138437
2025-12-07 7.691824 9.655848 11.933369 14.754829 18.140336 22.055267 26.907109
2025-12-14 6.469775 8.613826 11.223463 14.606092 18.844093 23.945276 30.513369
2025-12-21 5.314688 7.480095 10.238017 13.965687 18.823806 24.886749 32.963875
2025-12-28 4.823888 7.107946 10.127169 14.348864 20.027507 27.320781 37.300977
2026-01-04 4.375756 6.729677 9.950422 14.596479 21.028298 29.505568 41.387809
2026-01-11 3.890487 6.236954 9.555971 14.488414 21.505137 30.980912 44.563418
2026-01-18 3.468948 5.786838 9.170859 14.343234 21.891277 32.317554 47.574751
2026-01-25 3.147279 5.450204 8.913286 14.346165 22.462442 33.907447 50.972810
2026-02-01 2.895069 5.193713 8.747780 14.460500 23.182179 35.716740 54.730714
2026-02-08 2.625770 4.880668 8.465229 14.367408 23.573073 37.051494 57.842310
2026-02-15 2.381418 4.583301 8.179745 14.241357 23.892358 38.276585 60.821245
2026-02-22 2.202014 4.384011 8.042678 14.349067 24.589130 40.111471 64.809322
2026-03-01 2.093056 4.298717 8.086749 14.750451 25.764352 42.714962 70.051114
2026-03-08 1.894053 4.027736 7.791204 14.562470 25.974531 43.831801 73.055705
2026-03-15 1.647830 3.641235 7.261645 13.937215 25.427853 43.731959 74.161448
2026-03-22 1.575868 3.584358 7.313001 14.314783 26.556555 46.315237 79.543498
2026-03-29 1.491414 3.493653 7.294232 14.563673 27.474050 48.587368 84.503331
2026-04-05 1.367627 3.309271 7.085688 14.455186 27.767280 49.848200 87.876132
2026-04-12 1.251117 3.127499 6.866808 14.310521 27.983793 50.981721 91.069827
2026-04-19 1.162003 2.995315 6.733151 14.313366 28.455592 52.550326 95.019789
2026-04-26 1.092207 2.898601 6.661765 14.427502 29.127832 54.475043 99.615047
2026-05-03 1.007215 2.757854 6.489701 14.334584 29.414335 55.745301 103.146912